The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated Under Pressure, Awaiting New Drivers Amid Weak Supply-Demand and Macro Gameplay [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the morning session on September 23, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2510) was in the doldrums. Pressured by a mix of bullish and bearish factors on the macro front and sluggish supply and demand fundamentals, prices were under pressure. At the midday close, the most-traded contract was quoted at 271,000 yuan/mt, down 360 yuan, or about 0.13%, from the previous trading day's settlement price. Spot trades in the domestic market remained sluggish. Overnight, the decline in LME tin prices weighed on SHFE sentiment. LME tin closed at $34,020/mt, down $200, or 0.58%, from the previous day. During the Asian session today, LME tin prices continued to hover around the $34,000/mt mark, showing a consolidation pattern technically.

In terms of driving factors, the tin market is currently in a complex tug-of-war between macro and industrial dynamics. From a macro perspective, after the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, internal policy path divergences intensified, with several officials attempting to curb market expectations for easing, while new governors released dovish signals, advocating for further rate cuts within the year. This uncertainty led to increased volatility in the US dollar index, affecting the overall cost and risk appetite for US dollar-denominated base metals.

Looking ahead to the afternoon session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain in the doldrums, with significant resistance above. The market needs to closely monitor improvements in downstream actual consumption demand, the sustainability of LME inventory changes, and policy expectation disturbances from subsequent speeches by US Fed officials on the macro front. In the short term, in the absence of strong bullish drivers, tin prices are unlikely to see a trending move and may continue to test support repeatedly around current levels.